NBA Playoffs 2025-26 Round 1: Surprising Lessons from a Chaotic First Round

The 2025-26 NBA playoffs saw several unexpected twists and turns in the first round, with teams overcoming injuries and coming back from deficits.

Unconventional Wisdom: The Bench Matters Contrary to conventional NBA wisdom, which suggests that team depth becomes less important in the playoffs, reserves still play a crucial role. Injuries to leading scorers can create opportunities for bench players to step up and make a difference. The Minnesota Timberwolves' victory over the Denver Nuggets was largely due to their backups, who performed exceptionally well after Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo suffered injuries. Ayo Dosunmu scored 43 points off the bench in Game 4, and Terrence Shannon Jr. contributed 24 points in his first career playoff start to help secure Game 6. For the Los Angeles Lakers, Luke Kennard was the primary bench contributor, scoring 50 points across the first two games against Houston. Although Kennard's production declined as the series progressed, his initial hot streak helped the Lakers gain the series lead. Similarly, rookie Dylan Harper came off the bench for the San Antonio Spurs to score 27 points on 9-for-12 shooting in a comeback win against Portland, with Victor Wembanyama sidelined by a concussion. The Oklahoma City Thunder, with their deep rotation, are well-equipped to handle injuries and emerge victorious. Jalen Williams' injury was mitigated by the team's bench, which played efficiently without him. With Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe typically coming off the bench, the Thunder have a robust support system to rely on. ## Spurs Set the Standard with Scorching 3-Point Shooting One of the biggest questions surrounding the San Antonio Spurs was whether they could maintain their 3-point shooting against playoff defenses. So far, so good. The Spurs led all teams in the first round with a 41.8% shooting percentage from distance. The entire roster was hot, with the exception of Devin Vassell, who is the team's leading 3-point scorer in the regular season. Every Spur with double-digit attempts had above-average accuracy in the first round. The Spurs' 3-point shooting has been a key factor in their success, and it will be challenging for opponents to slow them down if Victor Wembanyama is healthy and his teammates continue to knock down open shots. The Spurs' 3-point shooting statistics for the first round are impressive, with Stephon Castle leading the way at 41%. Julian Champagnie and Dylan Harper also had impressive outings, shooting 62% and 50%, respectively. The Spurs' offense is a force to be reckoned with, and opponents will have to find ways to contain them if they want to emerge victorious. ## Knicks' Defense is a Key Factor in Their Success Despite being known for their offense, the New York Knicks have been almost as potent on defense as they have on offense. In the regular season, they ranked fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating. In the first round, they were second on offense and third on defense, with a defensive rating of 103.8 that would have been the best in the league during the regular season. The Atlanta Hawks struggled to score against the Knicks, failing to reach triple digits in each of the last three games, which were all Knicks wins. The Knicks' defensive prowess was particularly evident against the Hawks' top two scorers, who averaged 43.3 points per game in the regular season but only 33.2 points per game against the Knicks. The Knicks' unsung stinginess should give them confidence as they attempt to reach the Finals for the first time this century. ## Nuggets' Scoring Problem Runs Deeper than Defense While the Denver Nuggets have been criticized for their defense, their offense has been a bigger problem in recent postseasons. In their three playoff defeats since winning the title in 2023, their offensive rating has fallen by double digits compared to the regular season, and they've ranked at or near the bottom of the league in that round. Against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray had solid surface stats but substandard efficiency, shooting 45% and 19% on 3s, respectively. The Nuggets' supporting cast was inconsistent at best. This is an important point to understand, as Denver approaches a potentially tumultuous offseason. Given their personnel, the Nuggets might be tempted to put all of their focus on defense while trusting in the brilliance of Jokic and Murray to lift their offense to league-best heights. However, the past few postseasons show that's not good enough. Denver needs help on both ends to win another title. ## Defense is Hard but Not Impossible The scoring decline in the 2025-26 playoffs is a trend that has accelerated since the start of the postseason. Just last week, I wrote about the scoring decline, but it's worth revisiting after the conclusion of the first round. The league's offensive rating has never been higher than it was this year, and points per game reached its highest level since the turbo-paced 1960s. However, on Friday, the Magic scored 19 points in an entire half, setting a playoff record, as they failed to close out the Pistons in Game 6. Hours later, Houston managed only 78 points in an elimination game. The next night, Boston went 0-for-9 on clutch shooting in its Game 7 loss to Philadelphia. The 9.0-point decline in scoring would be the largest in any season in NBA history. Whether that pattern continues through the remainder of the playoffs remains to be seen. But with elite defenses still alive in Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Minnesota, New York, and Detroit, the remaining teams are showing that even in an offense-first era, defense can still win championships. ## Thunder's Offense is Rolling One team that didn't have trouble scoring in the first round is the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Suns ranked ninth in defensive rating in the regular season, and they were fifth specifically on half-court plays, per Cleaning the Glass. It's meaningful that Oklahoma City spent four games torching the Suns in exactly that situation. No other team came close to the Thunder's efficiency in the first round. The gap in half-court offensive rating between the Thunder (112.2 points per 100 half-court plays) and the second-best team (the Knicks, at 101.4) was larger than the gap between second and No. 11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, followed a record-setting regular season with similar production in the first round. He led all players with 33.8 PPG in the first round and shot an outrageous 61% on his 15.5 2-point attempts per game. ## KAT Needs the Ball Several veteran All-NBA big men enjoyed arguably the best playoff highlights of their careers in the first round. Rudy Gobert helped stymie Jokic, while Embiid scored 34 points to win his first Game 7, after three previous losses. Towns excelled on both ends, with a tactical tweak unleashing his playmaking and turning a 2-1 series deficit into a 4-2 win for the Knicks. The tweak was simple: The Knicks gave Towns the ball more and let him distribute from the middle of the court. His on-ball percentage in those three wins ranks third, fourth, and sixth out of 170 games he has played as a Knick, per GeniusIQ tracking. Before this postseason, Towns' career high in playoff assists was five. But he exceeded that number three times in a row as the Knicks closed out Atlanta, with 10 in a triple-double in Game 4, six in Game 5, and 10 more in another triple-double in Game 6. ## Magic in Crisis The Orlando Magic were on the rise two years ago after adding several key players, including Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Paolo Banchero. However, development isn't always linear, and the Magic have yet to replicate that initial burst. Amid various injuries, they slid to a 41-41 record, play-in appearance, and five-game loss in the first round last season. Then came an apparent turnaround: Orlando nabbed the No. 8 seed with a blowout win over Charlotte in the play-in round, then took a 3-1 lead against the top-seeded Pistons. They were a win away from becoming the seventh No. 8 seed to win a round. However, the Magic lost Game 5, blew a 24-point lead in a historically inept Game 6, and were blown out in Game 7. Defeating Detroit could have allowed the Magic to redeem an otherwise lost season. But now they face major questions, and potentially major changes, this summer. Coach Jamahl Mosley has been on the hot seat, and Anthony Black is up for an extension. Banchero and Wagner have always had a tenuous partnership, whose results have never matched the talent. ## Detroit and Cleveland Can't Feel Comfortable The good news for the two Central Division contenders is that they survived the first round. Now one of them is guaranteed to reach the conference finals. However, the bad news is that just about every concern about the two teams was magnified in their unexpectedly tricky first-round wins, casting doubt on their legitimacy as Finals contenders. The Pistons fell behind 3-1 against the Magic, and while they deserve ample credit for their mental resilience in coming back, they probably would have lost the series if not for Franz Wagner's absence in Games 5, 6, and 7, or if not for Orlando's sudden inability to make a shot down the stretch in Game 6. Moreover, Jalen Duren's dramatic playoff regression is a huge concern as he prepares to match up against Cleveland's star bigs. The Pistons struggle to score when their No. 2 scorer is lost like Duren was against the Magic. After Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris, no Piston scored more than 10.6 PPG in the first round. As a team, Detroit ranked last in 3-pointers, with just 9.7 makes per game. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, struggled to put away the Raptors despite a talent advantage and several key Raptors injuries. Cleveland lost all three games on the road and trailed for most of the first half in Game 7, at home, before turning on the jets after halftime. While Jarrett Allen looked dominant at times, Cleveland's star guards turned in oddly muted performances, combining for just 43.7 PPG on 44% shooting. ## We're on Track for a Titanic Clash in the Conference Finals If this first round was broadly defined by its strangeness, then it's fitting to end these takeaways with the two series that didn't fit that theme: Oklahoma City swept Phoenix, and San Antonio beat Portland in five games, with its only loss coming in a game Wembanyama left early. This was the first year since 2014 in which only two first-round series ended within five games. Oklahoma City and San Antonio ranked first and second in the regular season in wins and net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. With respect to the Lakers and Timberwolves, who survived seemingly calamitous injuries to reach the second round, and to all four Eastern Conference teams in the playoff bracket, three of which stormed to first-round victories with three-game winning streaks, nobody else appears anywhere near the same lofty level as the Thunder and Spurs. More strange surprises might arise as the postseason continues. But for now, a potential Thunder vs. Spurs conference finals looks like the top series to await over the rest of the playoffs.