Clippers and Pacers face high stakes in the NBA draft lottery
The NBA draft lottery is an annual event that is highly anticipated and closely watched, with the potential to significantly impact the league's landscape for years to come. This year's edition is no exception, with several teams having tanked in the hopes of improving their lottery odds. Over the past six months, as many as nine teams may have engaged in some level of tanking, which is roughly a third of the league. Each of these teams had their own unique motivations for doing so, as well as their own set of aspirations when it comes to the talented prospects available in this year's draft, including AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff Jr., Caleb Wilson, and others.
The LA Clippers and Indiana Pacers are two teams that could be heavily impacted by the lottery results. The Clippers do not have a representative at the lottery drawing, but they could still emerge as big winners or losers. This is because the Pacers traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Clippers, which will be conveyed if it falls within a specific range. The Pacers have a 52% chance of getting a pick in the top four and a 48% chance of the pick falling to spots 5 or 6, which would then go to the Clippers. If the Clippers receive the pick, it could be a game-changer for their franchise, allowing them to land a potential franchise-changing prospect and kick-start a rebuilding process that began last winter. On the other hand, if they do not get the pick, they will have to wait until 2031 to receive the Pacers' first-round pick as part of the trade.
The Atlanta Hawks are another team that could benefit from the lottery, despite not owning their own pick. Two years ago, the Hawks won the draft lottery with just a 3% chance, and while they do not have their own pick this season, they do have a chance to acquire a high pick through a trade. The Hawks made a trade at last year's draft that could pay off this year, as they will receive the better of the Bucks' or Pelicans' picks. This gives them an implied 40% probability of landing a pick in the top four and a 90% chance of getting a pick in the top eight.
There are four teams that are attempting to execute a delicate strategy, which involves using the lottery to acquire a talented young player and then quickly flipping that player into a winning team. The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Brooklyn Nets, and Dallas Mavericks are all in this position. The Wizards have the highest odds of getting a top-four pick for the third consecutive year and plan to use this pick to quickly rise up the Eastern Conference. The Jazz have not had much luck in the lottery, having never moved up and dropped four times, including in the past two years. They have been fined $600,000 over the past two seasons for violating anti-tanking rules. The Nets made a deal with the Rockets to regain control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks, with the goal of focusing on the draft for two years and then getting better by 2027. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are looking to get a running mate for Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg and get healthy in order to return to the playoffs as soon as possible.
There are also several teams that are considered long shots to win the lottery, but could still have a significant impact if they do. The Miami Heat have just a 4% chance of landing in the top four, but could use some luck to acquire a star player. The Golden State Warriors have a 9% chance of landing in the top four and could use a young running mate to turn their team around. Last season, the Mavericks had a 1.8% chance of winning the lottery and the Spurs had a 6.5% chance of getting the second pick, but both teams were able to defy the odds and acquire major talent injections.