Leeds edge closer to Premier League safety as Spurs face drop battle in 2026

Leeds moved to 40 points with a seven-game unbeaten run, while Tottenham sit just nine points clear of the relegation zone with five games left.

Relegation confirmed for two teams Burnley's defeat to the leaders sealed their exit from the Premier League along with Wolves, leaving just one spot still up for grabs in the bottom three. For weeks, the race involved four clubs—Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, and Tottenham—but recent results have shifted the dynamic. Leeds now stand at the 40-point mark after collecting seven points in their last three outings, including a late draw at Bournemouth that boosted their survival hopes. ## Leeds manager stays cautious Daniel Farke, the Leeds boss, urged patience despite his side’s strong form, stating, "I am experienced long enough in this world, we will celebrate when it's mathematically done. It's too early." He pointed to his team’s seven-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and questioned why they would falter in the final stretch. A win over Burnley at home could mathematically secure their safety, but Farke refused to count his chickens just yet. ## Survival chances narrow for Spurs rivals The Opta Supercomputer assigns Leeds a mere 0.21% chance of relegation from their current position, nearly ruling out their drop with so few games remaining. Nottingham Forest fared slightly better in the calculations, given a 4.27% chance of going down after their weekend victory. That leaves West Ham and Tottenham locked in a fight for the final relegation spot, with the Hammers at 38.58% risk and Spurs at 56.93%, marking them as favorites to suffer demotion for the first time since 1977. ## Spurs' form raises serious concerns Tottenham manager Roberto de Zerbi remained defiant, insisting his team "are able to win five games in a row" to secure survival, but their season-long struggles tell a different story. The north London side have gone without a top-flight win all year, enduring 15 winless league games and just two victories since late October. Their next match against Wolves could spare them from matching the club’s worst run of 1934-35, when they also went winless across a calendar year. ## Rivals show contrasting momentum While Spurs sputter, their relegation competitors have shown signs of revival. Nottingham Forest secured two wins in their last three games and remain unbeaten in five, while West Ham claimed two victories in their past five outings. Over broader stretches, Forest has collected 18 points in 13 matches, West Ham 19 in 12, and Leeds 19 in 15. Since late December, Spurs have managed just six points from 15 fixtures—a stark contrast to the upward trends around them. ## Final fixtures could decide fate Tottenham’s run-in includes a trip to relegated Wolves, a home clash with Leeds (if Leeds haven’t secured safety by then), and an away trip to Aston Villa between Europa League semi-final legs. Their schedule also features matches against Chelsea and Everton, both likely battling for European spots. West Ham’s path includes hosting Everton, traveling to Brentford, facing title-chasing Arsenal, and a tough away game at Newcastle. Forest face perhaps the toughest slate with away trips to Chelsea and Manchester United, sandwiched around a Europa League semi-final. ## Historical context adds pressure Forty-nine years have passed since Spurs last found themselves in the relegation zone after 33 games, a situation they failed to escape in 1976-77. Their current home form is among the worst in England’s top four tiers, with only two victories at home this season. The Opta data also highlights Spurs’ dire streak: only Derby County in 2007-08 and Sunderland in 2002-03 endured longer season-opening winless runs before relegation in those years. ## Points benchmarks offer little comfort Since 2015-16, every Premier League side that survived did so with at least 36 points, a benchmark Forest may take heart from. History shows only six teams have been relegated with 39 points or more in a 38-game season, and none in the past 14 years—since Birmingham and Blackpool both went down together in 2009-10. This season might prove the long-held belief that 40 points are needed for safety, yet West Ham’s 42-point relegation in 2002-03 serves as a cautionary tale that even that total can fall short.