Gobert's Redemption, a Cinderella Story Dominates NBA Playoffs 2026

The 2026 NBA playoffs are trending towards a significant scoring slump, with teams struggling to reach triple digits in over 29% of games.

NBA Playoffs Trending Towards a Scoring Slump The 2026 NBA playoffs are already halfway over, with 39 postseason games played. Historically, the number of playoff games per year ranges from 79 to 87, averaging 83. This year's scoring slump is a significant trend, with teams struggling to reach triple digits in over 29% of games, compared to 11% in the regular season. The Denver Nuggets, who scored 121.1 points per 100 possessions in the regular season, are down to 108.7 in the playoffs, which would have ranked 29th in the regular season. This decline in scoring is not just a function of pace, as the league slows down in the playoffs, but also a result of better defenses making long playoff runs. ## Scoring Decline in the Playoffs is a Historical Phenomenon Since the NBA moved to 16 playoff teams in 1983-84, postseason scoring has fallen by an average of 2.8 points per game compared to the regular season. However, this year's decline is the third-largest gap in league history, with a 8.3-point decrease per team per game. The overall true shooting percentage has also declined by 2.3 percentage points compared to the regular season, which is the second-largest ever. This postseason, 15 out of 16 teams are playing slower than they did in the regular season, with Denver being the exception. ## Offensive Rating Decline in the Playoffs is the Worst on Record Contrary to popular belief, offensive performance doesn't actually decline much in the playoffs. In fact, from 1973-74 to last year, the average offensive rating actually increased slightly (0.5 points per 100 possessions) in the playoffs. However, this year's decline in offensive rating is the worst on record, with a 4.3-point decrease per 100 possessions. The chart below shows the five largest playoff efficiency drops on record, with this year's decline being the largest. ## Largest Declines in Postseason Offensive Ratings | Season | Playoff Efficiency Drop* | | --- | --- | | 2025-26 | -4.3 | | 2003-04 | -4.1 | | 2023-24 | -1.8 | | 2006-07 | -1.6 | | 2024-25 | -1.5 | ## Shift in Shot Quality Contributes to Scoring Decline The shift in shot quality is another significant contributor to the scoring decline in the playoffs. According to GeniusIQ data, the average shot quality has declined by 1.0 percentage point compared to the regular season, which is twice as big as the previous largest drop in the tracking era. This means that defenses are forcing opponents into worse shots in the playoffs, leading to a decrease in scoring. ## Rudy Gobert's Redemption One of the brightest individual storylines in the first round is the redemption of Rudy Gobert. Despite being more maligned than one would expect of a four-time Defensive Player of the Year, Gobert has always been a positive contributor in the playoffs. In the playoffs, the Timberwolves have a net rating that's 7.8 points higher with Gobert on the court versus when he's off, per databallr. This is the second-best margin on the team, behind only Jaden McDaniels' 8.9. Gobert has also shown improvement in his one-on-one play against Nikola Jokic, holding him to a 36% effective field goal mark on 65 shots. ## Bottom-seed Magic On a team level, the brightest storyline in the first round resides in Orlando, where the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic are making up for an erratic, disappointing regular season with a 3-2 playoff lead against the top-seeded Detroit Pistons. The Magic are one win away from the seventh 8-over-1 upset in NBA history. Despite being outscored in the regular season, the Magic have shown improvement in the playoffs, with a net rating that's 7.5 points higher with Franz Wagner on the court versus when he's off. ## Tatum's Terrific Return Jayson Tatum has made a tremendous comeback from a torn right Achilles tendon, which he suffered last year. In the playoffs, Tatum has improved his statistics, averaging more rebounds, more assists, and fewer turnovers per game on much better efficiency. His scoring has dropped slightly, but he's still averaging 24.6 points per game, which is a testament to his hard work and dedication. ## Injury Woes The 2026 NBA playoffs have been marred by injury woes, with several stars missing games. Victor Wembanyama missed one full game and most of a second due to a concussion, while Edwards has missed a game and a half due to a left knee injury. Luka Doncic hasn't played at all in the postseason due to a hamstring injury, and Kevin Durant has appeared in just one game due to knee and ankle problems. This is not an exhaustive list, as several other key players have also missed games due to injuries.