Can data reveal the 2026 Championship play-off winner?

Four clubs are three matches away from Premier League promotion with a £100m prize on the line.

Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Hull City are just three victories away from securing promotion to next season's Premier League.

The four clubs will compete in this season's Championship play-offs, starting on Friday.

In the two-legged semi-finals, Millwall will face Hull City while Southampton will take on Middlesbrough.

The winners will meet at Wembley in the final to claim a place in England's top flight and financial rewards exceeding £100 million.

Since the Championship rebranded in 2004, the third-placed team in the regular season has won promotion most frequently in play-off campaigns.

The fourth-placed side has also enjoyed strong success, with four of the past six play-off winners finishing in that spot.

Of the 21 play-off campaigns since 2004-05, nine were won by third-placed teams, making Millwall historically the strongest candidate this season.

Southampton, currently fourth, aligns with recent trends as most play-off winners have occupied the top two spots.

Teams with the best attacking records during the regular season have won play-offs nearly 50% of the time, supporting Southampton this term.

However, recent history shows less prolific attacks also succeed, as each of the past five play-off winners had either the best or worst attacking records among the four contenders.

Millwall, third this season, scored the fewest goals (64) among the four play-off teams, yet still finished in a strong position.

Seven of the 21 play-off winners since 2004 had the best defensive record, while six had the second-best.

Five of the past six winners ranked either first or second defensively.

Middlesbrough lead this season with the fewest goals conceded (47), followed by Millwall (49).

Five clubs have advanced to the final after securing a goalless draw in either leg of the semi-finals, highlighting the importance of defensive solidity.

Teams with the best home records among the four contenders have won a third of play-off campaigns.

Southampton top this metric this season, though teams with the worst home records have also triumphed six times.

Hull City, with the weakest home record among the four, could still benefit from historical patterns where underperforming home sides have won promotion.

Nine of the 21 play-off winners finished with the best away record among the four teams, including four of the past six.

Millwall boast the best away record this season, as well as the best in the entire division.

Middlesbrough rank second among the play-off sides in away form, narrowly ahead of Hull City and Southampton.

Eight of the previous 21 play-off winners earned the most points from the final 10 matches of the regular season, including two of the past four winners.

Southampton lead this metric, indicating strong momentum heading into the play-offs.

Middlesbrough, by contrast, amassed the fewest points in that period.